Energy — oil & gas in South Africa.

Energy — oil & gas

South Africa is a small upstream country in resource terms but a large energy market. Domestic crude production is negligible; refining capacity has been shrinking — Engen's Durban refinery converted to a terminal, Caltex/Astron in Cape Town and Sapref in Durban have been through extended outages, and the country imports roughly 70 percent of its refined product. The story that matters is offshore gas. The Outeniqua Basin, off the southern coast, holds the Brulpadda and Luiperd discoveries — together about 3.4 trillion cubic feet of gas and roughly 190 million barrels of condensate, with Luiperd the larger of the two at 2.1 TCF and 112 million barrels. These were discovered by TotalEnergies on Block 11B/12B in 2019 and 2020 and were, for a time, the most consequential frontier finds on the African Atlantic margin south of Namibia.

That story changed in 2024. TotalEnergies, with QatarEnergy and CNR, exited Block 11B/12B after failing to reach pricing terms with PetroSA and Eskom on offtake — the gas was found, the buyers were obvious, the price was not. Africa Energy Corp and partners retain a position on the block but the operator role is open. TotalEnergies remains in South Africa as operator on Block 3B/4B in the Orange Basin, the same play system that has made Namibia the most-watched frontier in Africa, and a 2026 drilling campaign is in preparation. PetroSA, the state operator, runs the Mossel Bay gas-to-liquids facility — the F-A complex feeding it is in long decline and the plant is increasingly dependent on imported LNG via Coega or new offshore gas to keep running.

The regulatory frame has been the binding constraint. The Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act was assented to in 2024 and draft regulations were published for comment in 2025. UPRD replaces the petroleum chapter of the MPRDA with a dedicated upstream regime, separates the regulator from PetroSA, and — if the regulations land cleanly — gives operators the legal certainty they have been waiting for. The Petroleum Agency South Africa is being reconstituted to administer it. The next 12 to 24 months will determine whether UPRD attracts a return wave of IOCs, an Orange Basin step-out into South African waters, or another cycle of stalled licensing. South Africa is not going to be a major producer. It can be a credible offshore gas market and a re-export hub, and it can be a sandbox for Nordic decommissioning, integrity-management and gas-processing capability that translates directly to Namibia and Mozambique.